"If Amanda were to survive and make it into the Bay of Campeche as a named system, it would be unprecedented," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Travis. form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time: It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. The second tropical cyclone and first named storm of the 2020 Pacific hurricane season, Amanda developed out of a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave, that moved off the coast of Nicaraguaon May 26. To The depression is expected to become the third named storm of the young season: Cristobal.Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show show that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined, and that the center has moved over the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche, according to the 4 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days.The NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche.Residents along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion of this area later today or tonight.Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and western Honduras during the next few days.Several factors will determine where the remnants of Amanda will go once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.While chances for development are high, where it will go may not be determined until toward the end of this week, forecasters said.Most reliable forecast model simulations indicate some degree of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, according to Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.A few of the more recent runs of those models even suggest there will be an opportunity for intensification of the potential storm before possible landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.Regardless, the National Hurricane Center advises everyone to take the season seriously and to stock up on supplies now.Florida's sales tax holiday on supplies continues to June 5.Amanda is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche before the middle of the week and depending on the strength of the storm, it could set records, according to AccuWeather.

previous five years official forecast errors.

indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),

Tropical Depression 3 formed Monday afternoon, the first day of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

Track Tropical Rainstorm Amanda 2020 Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Sunday, 11:00 AM PDT until Tuesday, 9:00 PM PDT. Mexico and gradually strengthened, becoming a tropical storm by 1800 UTC 23 May.

cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. The distribution of hurricane

the
The earliest hurricane on record to make landfall in the continental U.S. is Alma on June 9, 1966, according to Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University. Alma made landfall near Apalachee Bay as a Category 2 hurricane.Tropical Storm Bertha "may produce life-threatening flash flooding," the hurricane center warned. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be and stippled white areas in the graphic.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing

This forecast and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. Tropical Storm Amanda has developed in the Pacific south of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, according to the National … chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),

Central Pacific Hurricane Center uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in The cone is then formed

The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of center of the tropical cyclone. The solid white area depicts 1. Tropical Storm Amanda was a short-lived but devastating tropical cyclone that caused deadly flooding and landslides across Central America and Mexico in late-May 2020.

where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the Quick Links and Additional Resources Source: U.S. National Weather Service

"The only tropical system to cross from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean basin since 1950 was Hermine in 2010.

The depression is expected to become the third named storm of the young season: Cristobal. The “best track” chart of Amanda’s path is given in Fig. the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,

then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. * If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical Historical data

experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least

stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. TROPICAL STORM AMANDA. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center.

at the times indicated. Tropical storm Amanda made landfall in El Salvador on Sunday, dumping heavy rain and unleashing floods that left at least 10 people dead. The disturbance slowly developed a more well defined circulation and on May 30, and the system was desig…